National energy security concerns, heightened by geopolitical tensions, are taking precedence over climate change mitigation, leading the world off-track for its 2050 net-zero target. This is the central finding of BP’s latest annual energy outlook, which substantially increases its long-term forecasts for oil and gas consumption, signaling a worrying slowdown in the global clean energy transition.
BP’s revised trajectory sees oil use rising to 83 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, an 8% increase from its previous estimate of 77 million b/d. Natural gas demand is also forecast to remain robust, projected at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Importantly, BP now expects global oil demand to peak later, hitting 103 million b/d in 2030—a five-year delay, underscoring the enduring demand for liquid fuels.
The shift in priorities is a direct consequence of global conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine and Middle East instability, along with trade tariffs. BP’s chief economist emphasized that these tensions are intensifying national demands for self-sufficiency in energy. This security focus creates a dichotomy: it may spur some countries to become ‘electrostates’ through rapid domestic, low-carbon electrification, but it also creates a strong incentive for others to boost reliance on domestically available fossil fuels over imported alternatives.
The report offers a stark contrast between the current trajectory and the necessary path for climate safety. To meet the 2050 net-zero targets, BP indicates that oil demand would need to fall to approximately 35 million b/d by that year, a far cry from the projected 83 million b/d. Failure to accelerate the transition carries severe risks; the company’s modeling shows that the world is on track to exhaust the 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s, threatening to drastically increase the future economic and social costs of climate change adaptation.
Even with rapid growth in cleaner sources, oil is projected to retain its position as the dominant primary energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables, while expanding substantially, are only expected to rise from 10% of the primary energy supply in 2023 to 15% in 2035, and are not forecast to overtake oil until the end of the 2040s. This sluggish energy turnover rate highlights the persistent structural inertia in the global energy system, a situation further complicated by BP’s own recent strategic pivot to ramp up oil and gas production following internal management and investor pressure.